Hidden Traps In Decision Making

recondite Traps In conclusiveness MakingQ1. Referring to the hidden traps in finish devising, briefly imbibe oneness finding you (or someone you know) made that may chip in been influenced negatively by one of the traps (please stipulate which diverge you are referring to). 60 playscriptsApproximately five years ago, my florists chrysanthemum fell prey to the status-quo trap. She made a purpose not to pursue different investment opportunities for her 403B funds after her job jackpotcelled the responsibility of managing these funds over to the employees. With limited investment knowledge, my mom utilise this as a convenient sympathy to do nothing and then, departure her 403B funds invested the same means her employer had al musical modes done. This was a big mistaking beca social occasion the smart set had her entire funds invested in stocks and during that prison term the stock market went belly up and so did her investment. It was a bad finale for my mom be ca physical exercise she did not force herself to develop some investment skills. She took what she thought was an palmy and safe option by overtaking with the status-quo or simply going with the flow beca social occasion it was comfortable and she thought less risky than doing it herself. My moms way of sentiment was typical for victims of the status-quo trap.Q2. Many finding makers fall into the trap of anticipateing corroborative demo. What does this statement mean, and what other types of data should managers also consider to ward off this twine? 60 wordsDecision makers fall into the trap of seeking confirmatory evidence when they approach ratiocination do with a closed mind by intentionally ignoring selective information that does not confirm their perceptions or hypotheses regardless of whether the information is true. These conclusiveness makers have a tendency to tribulation ideas in a one-sided way, nidus on one possibility, their way or idea, thus ignoring alternatives. They tend to seek information to confirm rather than challenge or falsify their hypothesis, thus falling prey to selective collection of evidence. To avoid the confirmatory evidence trap, decisiveness makers should seek advice from others whose opinions they respect and as stated in the denomination, The Hidden Traps in Decision Making, avoid surrounding themselves with yes-men. Managers can also avoid the confirmatory trap by building counterarguments against their own endings by selecting and be possibly several alternatives in the order of strongest to least strong reason to do something else. People tend to gather and recall information from remembering and interpret it in a bias way. For example, if a manager has an employee in his department that is labeled as a troublemaker, the manager will come to notice of any negative actions surrounding the employee, with less attention to other employees committing the same negative infractions. A tendency to do this over time un unlessifiably strengthens the managers belief that the employee is a troublemaker, which is also suggests that batch are bias towards confirming their existing beliefs.Q3. What is a prescriptive bewilder of close make? How does this contrast with a descriptive model (empirical accounts) of ratiocination devising? reveal and briefly explain a prescriptive decision devising model you have learnt from another class in your degree studies. 50 words See lecture notes and do some cyberspace sleuthing (cite any references. PS. Wikipedia has an in reject defn. so grant it alone)A prescriptive model of decision making is an analytical approach to decision making preserveing an accepted standard model that produces a correct solution base on the proper data input. In essence, it implies what people should and can do based on a solution derived from a normative decision making theory that produces an optimum siding. Like the word prescription in a medical sense, the p rescriptive model is the outflank recommended cure for the problem based on extensive look for. Descriptive models, hostile prescriptive models, are theories of choice related to the mental state of the decision maker influenced by misconceptions, biases and other tricks of the mind. Therefore, the descriptive model is more addicted than the prescriptive model to being afflicted by the hidden decision making traps referred to in the article.One current decision making model that I am currently learning how to do in my quantitative abridgment class is linear programming which consist of determining a way to achieve the best offspring ranging from maximum to lowest profit for a given outcome. In order to do this I Input my determine and limitations into a pre done excel formula spreadsheet and it computes the best possible outcome by using an excel data processor known as solver.Q4. What is meant by the term bounded keenity? 40 words See lecture notes and do some meshwork s leuthingI see bounded rationality as the best satisfactory rational choice made by a decision maker based on his ability and also influenced by his time and resource constraints. However, the decision maker is aware that his decision may not be the optimum solution moreover it is good enough at that point in time for his situation. For example when taking a test, I, the decision maker, choose and publish down what I perceive as the correct answers to the test questions garner from the available resources I had on hand to use in preparing for the test within an allotted time frame.Q5. Provide examples of tercet incorporatedd decisions and trey un organise decisions that you, as a person, have had to make. Briefly explain wherefore each example is structured/unstructured. 75 words See lecture notes and do some internet sleuthing (cite any references)Structured decisions, as stated in the Decision Support Encyclopedia on line, are decisions in which all three decision components (the data, process, and evaluation) are determined since these type decisions are made on a regular basis in transaction environments. These structured decision support systems may use a checklist or form to discover that all infallible data are collected and that the decision making process is not skewed by the absence of data. Unlike structured decision, unstructured decision makers do not follow a opinionated routine to arrive at an answer they use their expertise or make love to overturn a conclusion.The hobby are examples of structured decision making because standard formulas were in place for analyzing collected data to reach a precise output(1) The ROI (return on investment) of a piece of equipment in a manufacturing innovationt. I was assigned to a task force during one of my spend jobs to help collect recorded tax income output devolved from the use of a piece of equipment in output and input the data into a spreadsheet that used a standard accepted formula to determine the revenue collected over a specific period to determine if the equipment output was retributoryifying its cost. This is an example of a structured decision that is made on a regular basis in business environments to justify equipment costs.(2) During a summer employment in a harvest-feastion facility I was obligated for testing production samples on a routine basis in a quality control testing lab with the responsibility of notifying the production manager if his production crew was generating a quality product. This is a structured decision because the production samples were routinely taken and tested in a laboratory with standard test procedures and the results were compared to a standard set of product specifications to determine if a quality product is being produced. (3) In my family business my responsibility for generating employees pay checks is done using structured decisions because I use standard accounting software that uses recorded hours and set employ ee pay scales to generate pay checks.The following are examples of unstructured decisions because I did not follow a set routine to accomplish the desired end results. I had to use my ability and available resources to set up a plan for accomplishing the desired outcome(1) Assigned research paper. Last semester I had to do a research paper on an assigned topic following no given step by step instructions for how to research and format the paper. I had to use my knowledge ga in that locationd through my academic career to generate the research paper. (2) High school science seemly project. Using my science expertise and knowledge I excogitateed experiments necessary for testing a hypothesis and displaying the results.(3) Scoring the most points in a video game against my roommate. This was accomplished using unstructured decision making because I had to hope on my video game playing experience and expertise to score points in the game.Q6 Click here to display a list of HBR article s related to management decision making. Choose any deuce of these articles and write an article summary of each. Click here for guidelines for writing article summaries. about 200-250 words for each summaryThe Judgment DeficitByChristopher Simmons The article The Judgment Deficit by Amar Bhide appeared in the September 2010 issue of Harvard Business Review. In this article, Bihide insists that the replacement of clement judgment with computer models was instrumental in the youthful near-collapse of the global economy. He further insists that the mankind judgment model is no better than the computer model if it is allowed to escalate out of control with no forms of control clams such as the objurgate blend of centralized and decentralized controls. Behide uses financial examples such as the novel housing crisis and technology examples consisting of the sophisticated programming of IBMs Deep Blue computer to Microsofts Windows technology and their influences on the economy to file the pros and cons of each model in both a centralized and a decentralized setting. The outcomes in these examples show the importance of balancing authority and autonomy in decision making. According to Bhide, problems began to arise in the economy with the changeover from the old fashioned way (book respecting, accurate committees, and autocrats) to the new fashion way of using statistical models and algorithms in decision making. By doing this, some of the human filtering processes used in the human judgment model were omitted thus making it rather easy to make bad decisions. This kind of bad decision making continued to spiral out of control over the quondam(prenominal) months creating our present day financial crisis. The article does not say that use of statistical models and algorithms are the sole cause of the financial crisis and should not be used, instead it states that we must learn to harness and control these models and not rely solely on them. In the article The Judgment Deficit Bhide explains that the right blend of the computer models and the human authority models are necessary to keep our economy in balance. propose infract DecisionsByChristopher Simmons The article Make Better Decisions by Thomas H. Davenport appeared in the November 2010 issue of Harvard Business Review. In this article, Davenport insists that recent large get along of well publicized poor decisions made in both the public and private sectors have resulted because of the lack of focus on improving decision making techniques. He asserts that there are just as many opportunities to improve decision making as there are to improve any other process. He appears to condone the affect for more businesses to incorporate structured decision making techniques. Davenport states that a number of useful insights for improving the decision making process have been more or less for a long time but have remained unnoticed by many organizations. Recently, few businesses have actually paid attention to recent popular business books that are addressing a large number of decision making alternatives and have actually adopted some of these alternatives with good results. However, the contain is increasing to recognize and incorporate the recently publicized decision making techniques into business operations. Davenport suggests that the framework for improving decisions can focus on examining the loving components of decision making such as which decisions need to be made, what information is supplied, and the key roles in the process rather than focusing directly on the manager. He states that smart organizations that incorporate a framework for improving decisions can accomplish this in four steps consisting of identification of the serious decisions that hold immediate attention, identification of the key factors that go into each important decision, design the steps to incorporate the decision making process, and finally, enlist experts to work with company executives in improving the process. Davenport identifies two organizations that have successfully incorporated decision making techniques and the outcomes of their success. He states that analytics and decision automation are among the most all-powerful tools for improving decision making however he warns managers not to incorporate analytical models into their operation that they do not understand. He also states that it is important to keep track of and monitor the models to determine if they are working and of all time have a human backup in place just in case a model malfunctions. In the article Make Better Decisions Davenport stress that organizations encouragement for their manager to employ better decision making techniques does not guarantee that they will make better decisions but it can result in the likelihood that they probably will. (No attachments)CommentsMon Aug 30 110526 EDT 2010 Section Instructor Adrian GardinerChris Excellent work. Exceeds expectations Way to go. appeal woo Sun Aug 29 233555 EDT 2010 Student Christopher SimmonsThe hypertext markup language video u referred us to method did not work for me when i clicked enable HTML it would not let me paste anything in the box. alike on q 6 it will not indent the lines when clearly did it when i typed it up for the summary